Comment: New statistics make it difficult to track the development of recycling

– Sweden is not meeting its recycling targets and will not succeed in reaching them by 2030 unless more actors do more. The change in the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency’s method makes it unclear where Sweden actually stands and risks giving a misleading picture of recycling performance. It becomes difficult for producers, municipalities, and policymakers to track progress when the reporting changes this drastically from one year to the next, says Axel Naver, Sustainability & Public Policy Expert at the recycling organisation Näringslivets Producentansvar. 

Today, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency presented its 2024 statistics on packaging recycling. In the official statistics, the recycling rate for paper packaging appears to increase from 81 to 99 percent, and glass from 85 to 98 percent. However, these increases are not the result of real improvements, but rather due to changes the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has made to which volumes are included in the statistics. As a result, this year’s figures cannot be compared with those of previous years. 

When gross statistics are used — meaning only the amount of packaging reported to the authorities — two significant factors disappear from the picture:

• Unregistered packaging from so-called free riders, which according to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency account for large volumes.

• Packaging that ends up in residual waste instead of being sorted for recycling.

When these factors are included, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency itself estimates that the actual recycling rate is likely around 82 percent for paper and 83 percent for glass — levels that are much closer to those of previous years.

– Packaging that is not recycled is a waste of resources and leads to unnecessary climate emissions. We want to help make the statistics more understandable and to help Sweden reach its targets. To achieve this, all actors need access to accurate and comparable data, says Axel Naver.

From 2025 onwards, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has received increased resources for supervising the producer responsibility, which can reduce free-riding and provide a more accurate statistical basis going forward.

Näringslivets Producentansvar recently released a report on Sweden’s ability to meet the EU’s recycling targets by 2030. The report analyzes the entire system, including the impact of free-riding.